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Relitix’s newest release of the Agent Movement Index™ (AMI) through January 2025 shows that while agent movement in January rose from December’s lows—following a typical seasonal pattern—the rebound is notably weaker than in most prior years. The seasonally adjusted data continues to drift lower, indicating that the underlying pace of brokerage switching remains subdued. Meanwhile, the count of active agents continues a modest decline but has not yet reached levels seen back in 2018.
KEY OBSERVATIONS FROM JANUARY 2025
- Modest monthly uptick, but below typical January: The unadjusted monthly AMI score rose to 90.3, reflecting a normal post-holiday lift in agent movement. However, that bounce is underwhelming by historical standards.
- Seasonally adjusted metric declines: The seasonally adjusted figure edged down to 89.2, continuing the softer trend noted in December’s release and emphasizing that the real underlying movement remains slower than usual for this time of year.
- 12 month moving average eases further: The trailing 12-month measure dipped to 98.6, extending the downward drift we highlighted last month.
- Active agent count slips again: The pool of agents closing at least one transaction in the past year fell to 790,111, marking another month of decline—though still well above the more constrained numbers of 2018.
“January often brings a bump in recruiting momentum as agents re-evaluate their broker relationships,” said Relitix Founder, Rob Keefe. “This year, that uptick appears muted. Our seasonally adjusted readings continue to slip, suggesting that many agents are staying put and that brokerages remain cautious with their hiring. While it’s not as low as the environment we saw in 2018, we expect recruiters and brokerage leaders to keep refining their retention strategies until the market signals a stronger turnaround.”
These January findings build on the themes from our December 2024 release, which underscored a persistent downward trend in agent mobility and foreshadowed a tempered start to 2025. Although a modest January increase in raw numbers is normal—and did materialize—the relative weakness of this year’s uptick indicates the caution we have observed for several months remains in place.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR BROKERAGE LEADERS AND RECRUITERS
- Planning for a Soft First Quarter: Even with a small seasonal bounce, overall agent movement remains subdued. Leaders may want to plan for slower-than-typical early-year recruiting.
- Retooling Recruitment Strategies: As fewer agents switch brokerages, an enhanced value proposition—such as stronger technology tools, marketing support, or more robust agent development—could tip the scales in attracting top performers.
- Monitoring Active Agent Levels: Although active agent counts continue to trend down, they have not (yet) returned to 2018’s lower levels. Keeping tabs on whether the agent pool stabilizes or contracts further is critical for setting realistic recruiting goals.
Relitix’s AMI is updated monthly using extensive national data from major MLS systems. It offers brokerage and franchise leaders invaluable insights into the trends shaping agent movement. By examining both monthly and seasonally adjusted metrics, the AMI provides a clear view of industry shifts that can guide more strategic decisions around recruitment and retention.
About the agent movement index: The agent movement reflects the relative mobility of experienced agents between brokerages. The score is computed by estimating the number of agents who changed brokerages in a given month. To be counted the agent must be a member of one of the analyzed MLS’s and change to a substantially different office name at a different address. M&A-driven activity and reflags are excluded as are new agents and agents who leave real estate. Efforts are made to exclude out of market agents and those which are MLS system artifacts. The number of agents changing offices is divided by the number of agents active in the past 12 months in the analyzed market areas. This percentage is normalized to reflect a value of 100 at the level of movement in January 2016 (0.7313%). The seasonally adjusted value divides the monthly result by the average of the same month in prior years.
Analyzed MLS’s represent over 800,000 members and include: ACTRIS, ARMLS, BAREIS, BeachesMLS, BrightMLS, Canopy, Charleston Trident, CRMLS, GAMLS, GlobalMLS, HAR, LVAR, Metrolist, MLSListings, MLSNow, MLSPIN, MRED, Northstar, NTREIS, NWMLS, OneKey, RealComp, REColorado, SEF, Stellar, Triad, Triangle, and UtahRealEstate.
About Relitix: Relitix provides data-driven decision support for brokerage leaders across the United States. A pioneer in applying AI and data science technology in brokerage management, Relitix profiles over 1.2 million agents in more than 130 markets nationwide to help brokers recruit, coach, and retain agents. Advanced data tools allow unprecedented visibility in agents, offices, and markets for strategic planning and M&A support. Learn more at www.relitix.com.
