Relitix's AMI™ Continues Downward Trend Through Dec. 2024

Relitix’s AMI™ Continues Downward Trend Through Dec.2024

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Relitix’s latest release of the Agent Movement Index™ (AMI) through December 2024 confirms a continuation of the downward trajectory observed in recent months, underscoring the year-end slowdown and persistent market caution. While December often marks the lowest point seasonally, this year’s results reinforce the subdued climate that has defined much of 2024.

KEY OBSERVATIONS FROM DECEMBER 2024

Monthly Score Dips Further: The monthly AMI value finished at 69.7, reflecting one of the lowest readings of the year.
Seasonally Adjusted Figure Holds Modestly Higher: Despite the overall decline, the seasonally adjusted metric reached 86.8, suggesting that December’s traditional lull in recruiting may account for some of the dip.
12-Month Moving Average: At 99.6, the trailing 12-month average remains under the 100 baseline, extending the steady decline noted in our November and October releases.
Agent Pool Stabilizing at Lower Level: The count of active agents—those closing at least one transaction in the past year—has ticked down slightly, continuing the taper seen throughout most of 2024.

“December’s data caps off a challenging year for agent mobility,” said Relitix Founder, Rob Keefe. “Following the Presidential election and the final rollout of the NAR settlement, we’ve seen recruitment efforts cool and agents remain cautious. While this month’s dip in the raw data is partly seasonal, the broader downward trend is consistent with what we’ve reported over the last several releases. However, as the calendar turns to 2025 and the industry digests these structural shifts, we may see a renewed willingness among agents to explore new opportunities.” This month’s findings build on themes first noted in the early fall—namely, the drag on agent movement tied to macro-level uncertainties and the year’s major regulatory events. Our November 2024 report highlighted the effect of both the election cycle and the NAR settlement in cooling agent mobility, while October 2024 data showed that even a slight revision upward in seasonally adjusted figures had not reversed the overall decline.

LOOKING AHEAD TO 2025:

Brokerage leaders and recruiters should be aware that the seasonal lull typically extends through the first quarter. However, as we transition into a post-election environment and brokerages finalize adjustments to the NAR settlement, there is potential for a pick-up in recruitment. A watchful stance on external factors—such as interest rates, consumer confidence, and housing supply—remains crucial, as these will likely dictate how quickly agent movement rebounds.

The December AMI reading—encompassing the monthly score, seasonally adjusted index, and the trailing 12-month figures—provides vital intelligence for brokerage decision-makers. By keeping a pulse on these indices, industry professionals can better align their recruitment and retention strategies with emerging trends.

About the agent movement index: The agent movement reflects the relative mobility of experienced agents between brokerages. The score is computed by estimating the number of agents who changed brokerages in a given month. To be counted the agent must be a member of one of the analyzed MLS’s and change to a substantially different office name at a different address. M&A-driven activity and reflags are excluded as are new agents and agents who leave real estate. Efforts are made to exclude out of market agents and those which are MLS system artifacts. The number of agents changing offices is divided by the number of agents active in the past 12 months in the analyzed market areas. This percentage is normalized to reflect a value of 100 at the level of movement in January 2016 (0.7313%). The seasonally adjusted value divides the monthly result by the average of the same month in prior years.

Analyzed MLS’s represent over 800,000 members and include: ACTRIS, ARMLS, BAREIS, BeachesMLS, BrightMLS, Canopy, Charleston Trident, CRMLS, GAMLS, GlobalMLS, HAR, LVAR, Metrolist, MLSListings, MLSNow, MLSPIN, MRED, Northstar, NTREIS, NWMLS, OneKey, RealComp, REColorado, SEF, Stellar, Triad, Triangle, and UtahRealEstate.

About Relitix: Relitix provides data-driven decision support for brokerage leaders across the United States. A pioneer in applying AI and data science technology in brokerage management, Relitix profiles over 1.2 million agents in more than 130 markets nationwide to help brokers recruit, coach, and retain agents. Advanced data tools allow unprecedented visibility in agents, offices, and markets for strategic planning and M&A support. Learn more at www.relitix.com.