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Relitix’s latest release of the Agent Movement Index™ (AMI) for July 2024 indicates a notable shift in the real estate agent landscape, highlighting a cooling trend in agent movement and an emerging caution in the market.
Key Observations from July 2024 AMI:
- Halting of Agent Growth: The recent trend of increasing active agents, which we’ve observed over several months, appears to have come to a stop. The number of active agents is now stabilizing, potentially signaling a more challenging environment for new entrants.
- Decline in Agent Movement: After a resurgence in agent movement between brokerages from Fall 2023 through Spring 2024, we are now seeing a decline. This suggests that the period of heightened mobility may be coming to an end as agents take a wait-and-see approach to the new industry structure.
- Impact of NAR’s Commission Rule Changes: Agents are experiencing uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) commission rule changes. This uncertainty seems to be making agents more hesitant to make major moves contributing to the decline in agent movement.
Rob Keefe, Founder of Relitix, commented on these developments, stating, “The data from July clearly show a market in transition. After months of increased activity, agents are beginning to take a more measured approach, likely in response to the uncertainties brought about by recent industry changes. It’s a time for brokerages to pay close attention to these trends and adjust their strategies accordingly.”
This month’s findings mark a departure from the trends we’ve seen in previous AMI releases, where we noted a consistent rise in active agents and agent movement. For instance, in our June 2024 release, we highlighted the ongoing rise in active agents and the stabilization of agent movement at pre-2017 levels. The July AMI, however, records a trailing 12-month score of 98.9, a monthly score of 101.1, and a seasonally adjusted figure of 88.3, reflecting the beginning of a potential shift in market dynamics.
The AMI is a robust metric that tracks agent movement dynamics using extensive national data from major MLS systems. It is released monthly and includes both raw monthly figures and seasonally adjusted data to provide a transparent view of underlying trends.
Trends in the relative movement of experienced real estate agents between brokerages are an important strategic consideration for brokerage and franchise leaders. The relative amount of movement fluctuates over time on a seasonal and long-term basis. To capture these trends and report them to the industry Relitix is proud to introduce its Agent Movement Index™. The AMI is published monthly and features monthly and seasonally adjusted, and 12-trailing-month values. The index is calculated using national-level data from a large sample of the nation’s most prominent MLS systems.
About the agent movement index: The agent movement reflects the relative mobility of experienced agents between brokerages. The score is computed by estimating the number of agents who changed brokerages in a given month. To be counted the agent must be a member of one of the analyzed MLS’s and change to a substantially different office name at a different address. M&A-driven activity and reflags are excluded as are new agents and agents who leave real estate. Efforts are made to exclude out of market agents and those which are MLS system artifacts. The number of agents changing offices is divided by the number of agents active in the past 12 months in the analyzed market areas. This percentage is normalized to reflect a value of 100 at the level of movement in January 2016 (0.7313%). The seasonally adjusted value divides the monthly result by the average of the same month in prior years.
Analyzed MLS’s represent over 800,000 members and include: ACTRIS, ARMLS, BAREIS, BeachesMLS, BrightMLS, Canopy, Charleston Trident, CRMLS, GAMLS, GlobalMLS, HAR, LVAR, Metrolist, MLSListings, MLSNow, MLSPIN, MRED, Northstar, NTREIS, NWMLS, OneKey, RealComp, REColorado, SEF, Stellar, Triad, Triangle, and UtahRealEstate.
About Relitix: Relitix provides data-driven decision support for brokerage leaders across the United States. A pioneer in applying AI and data science technology in brokerage management, Relitix profiles over 1.2 million agents in more than 130 markets nationwide to help brokers recruit, coach, and retain agents. Advanced data tools allow unprecedented visibility in agents, offices, and markets for strategic planning and M&A support. Learn more at www.relitix.com.
